A swing state climate cheat sheet for the 2024 presidential election

by Finley Harckham Jr.

With the presidential election campaign in full swing, Americans are reminded once again that the results in just a few states will ultimately determine which candidate will hold the highest office in the United States. For those readers looking to either win over hearts and minds or “fire up” environmentally conscious citizens in those swing states to get out the vote, it is worth knowing some of the local and hyper-local climate issues impacting them. As the old saying goes, “all politics is local,” and despite the universal impact that climate change is having on us all, state-specific impacts may resonate more with certain voters.

Albert Einstein said, “In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.” So it is with the climate crisis, as states act to seize the economic and quality of life benefits conferred by the historic climate legislation of the Biden-Harris administration. This article will examine some of the major climate challenges and opportunities in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin 

As some people look to Wisconsin with hope that its abundant fresh water, cooler temperatures and inland location might make it a haven for climate refugees from other parts of the country, there are still significant climate change hazards that voters should be aware of as they consider candidates and their policies this November. The Biden/Harris Administration created some exciting opportunities for Wisconsin in this fight against climate change, but it will take a Harris victory to secure and build on this progress.

Climate Challenges 

Wildfire smoke: Even though precipitation is projected to increase in Wisconsin, the state is increasingly likely to be blanketed by hazardous wildfire smoke that will blow in from the Western United States and Canada. The negative health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke can range from mild irritation to birth defects and life-threatening asthma attacks and cardiovascular diseases. The state is already grappling with an increase in hazardous air quality days as a result of it. In 2023, Wildfire smoke from Canada prompted the most air quality advisories in a decade and, as one group of scientists believe, caused the deaths of 100 people.

Wisconsin cannot stop the increasingly common climate change-driven wildfires in California or Canada.  This is exactly why residents should vote for Kamala Harris, who will enact policies that can slow and reverse climate change’s impacts on a national and international scale.

Map of US air quality during 2023 Canadian wildfires
Map of U.S. air quality during the 2023 Canadian wildfires. (Source: Wisconsin State Climatology Office)

Increased flooding: With more than 15,000 lakes, 800 miles of Great Lakes lakefront and 84,000 river-miles, fresh water is an abundant and valuable resource in Wisconsin.This abundance of water also puts Wisconsin increasingly at risk of dangerous and costly floods, especially as extreme weather events and precipitation increase as a result of climate change. In the last 50 years there has already been a 10-20% increase in precipitation in Wisconsin and with it an increase in expensive and disastrous floods. According to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the rate of significant floods has increased dramatically since 1990.” Since 2019 there have been two flooding events that exceeded $1 billion in damages each.

Winter sports at risk: Winter sports are part of Wisconsin’s identity and economy. In addition to the intangible benefits that come from them, snow activities combined accounted for nearly $84 million dollars of Wisconsin’s GDP in 2022, a number which doesn’t include the economic impact winter tourism has on other ancillary industries like hotels or restaurants. With 2024 being Wisconsin’s warmest winter in the last 123 years and with Great Lake winter ice cover declining, fighting to protect a tradition of winter sports offers a very visible and visceral climate threat to bring up with Wisconsin voters.

Climate Opportunities

As a direct result of pro-climate policies instituted by the Biden/Harris Administration, Wisconsin has been presented with several exciting opportunities to fight climate change while benefiting local workers, businesses and ecosystems. Some of these include:

Michigan 

As a neighboring Great Lakes state, Michigan faces some similar climate risks as Wisconsin, but also its own unique challenges and opportunities for its residents and economy to benefit from pro-climate policies.

Climate Challenges 

Toxic algae and dead zones: Michigan, along with several of its Great Lakes Region neighbors, is already prone to toxic algae blooms in the warmer months, but as the conditions that lead to these blooms become more frequent as a result of climate change, Michigan can expect larger, longer blooms causing more risk to the health of humans, animals and local ecosystems.

Michigan’s algae blooms are triggered when agricultural runoff rich with nitrogen and phosphorous is swept into warm, fresh bodies of water during storms or flooding. This nutrient rich petro-chemical runoff leads to a population explosion of naturally occurring cyanobacteria, filling the surrounding water with an oozing slime filled with cyanotoxins that kill marine life, birds, and increasingly, people’s pets. Exposed humans can get sick, though luckily human fatalities are rare. These blooms can also create dead zones within bodies of water, which have so little oxygen that fish and other aquatic life can not survive.

These blooms are already impacting Michigan’s ecosystems and residents’ ability to enjoy outdoor recreational activities. As of October, 2024, there is an algae bloom in western Lake Erie that is approximately 500 square miles. With increasing precipitation and extreme storms and with temperatures continuing to rise, we can expect more frequent and larger toxic blooms in Michigan if we don’t change course.

In addition to supporting GHG reducing policies, Kamala Harris also has a track record of supporting initiatives encouraging reduction in the use of the petro-chemical fertilizers, which trigger these blooms.

Ground-Water Contamination: With 35% of Michigan’s population relying on septic tanks, the increased flooding and precipitation that will come from climate change could lead to an increase in the number of backed up/overflowing septic systems, which will contaminate ground water with sewage and its accompanying pathogens.

Climate Opportunities

Building a stronger, greener auto industry: As a direct result of the work of the Biden/Harris Administration, Michigan is set to become a leader in the transition to electric vehicles (EV). This transformation is not only good for the climate, but it is good for the 1.1 million Michiganders employed in the auto industry. A few of the upcoming EV investments in the state include:

Pennsylvania

With 19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the biggest political prize of any of the swing states. Like the others, Pennsylvania is facing a variety of climate challenges. With the right support from the Federal Government, however, it will likely be able to avoid some of the worst outcomes of climate change and prepare to mitigate what it can’t avoid.

Climate Challenges 

Extreme heat days: With the number of extreme heat days expected to rise in Pennsylvania (as with many other states) the risk of heat stroke and other heat related illnesses will rise too. This is of special importance in eastern Pennsylvania where scientists predict the biggest increase. Philadelphia is especially at risk as a result of heat islands that make the air for 52% of city residents feel 8 degrees hotter.

Projected increase in Extreme Heat in PennsylvaniaProjected increase in extreme heat in Pennsylvania. (Source: 2024 Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment and Climate Action Plan)

Increase of tick and mosquito-borne illnesses: As precipitation and humidity rise and local winter’s warm, the state will become an increasingly supportive habitat for ticks and mosquitos. Scientists expect that there will be an increase in cases of mosquito-and tick-transmitted diseases as a result. This is not a distant threat. Pennsylvania has been leading the nation in total cases of Lyme disease for many of the last 15 years. Cases of other tick carried diseases like anaplasmosis are also increasing.

Warmer winters mean that mosquitoes will be active for longer periods of the year. As a result, the number of days that humans could come in contact with mosquitos infected with diseases like West Nile Virus will increase.

Local air quality: Pennsylvania has some of the worst air quality in the country. Despite a decline in the number of coal powered power plants in the state over the last several decades, several coal powered plants remain, spewing GHGs and hazardous particulate matter into the air. According to a report from the Sierra Club Clean Air Task Force, two of the nation’s top 15 deadliest coal plants are located in the state. Though it is welcome news that these plants are slated to be shut down in the next few years, a Donald Trump administration could take steps to delay or even undo the planned shuttering of these plants. In metro areas with high concentrations of automobiles and highways, like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, warming temperatures interacting with car exhaust could increase ground level smog and the negative health impacts that come with it.

Risks to agriculture: Though a warmer climate will likely extend the growing season for the 90,461 agricultural producers in Pennsylvania, climate change brings risks to agriculture as well. For example, an increase in the number of wild temperature swings over a growing season could impact the growth rate of crops, weaken them and make them more susceptible to diseases or pests like the corn earworm, which have been migrating northward.

Climate Opportunities

Despite the climate risks facing Pennsylvania there are also opportunities for the state to be an active part of the solution and to reap the rewards of helping to transition to a green economy. A few of these include:

Though it will take the collaboration of the international community to slow and reverse climate change, ensuring the United States remains a leader in this cause, by electing Kamala Harris as President of the United States, is a crucial next step. To make that brighter future possible, we need to appreciate global trends while speaking to the very local impacts and opportunities that might just inspire the swing state needed to put Kamala Harris in the Whitehouse. We should also recognize that an unrelenting message of climate doom may induce paralysis or hopelessness in some voters. Accordingly, climate advocates might do well in their messaging to balance sober assessment of the climate threat with positive news about the opportunities in front of us.

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